Is TV Advertising Dying?
image courtesy of rickremington (flickr)
We are all aware of the rapid decline happening in the print industry (magazines, newspapers, etc). Publications left and right are closing down shop – victim to being “traditional media” in a “new media” world. But, what about TV? Television is a “traditional” media as well. However, Nielsen is reporting that TV viewing is at an all-time high, with households watching more than 150 hours each month. Interestingly enough, TV show and video viewing online and on mobile devices is up, too. How are we finding time to watch so much TV?
I think a large part of the change can be attributed to Digital Video Recorders (DVR), like the ever-popular TiVo (we can talk about the impact of mobile and Web video another time). In fact, just over 30% of households now have a DVR (up significantly from just 12% in 2007). Nielsen refers to them as “time-shifted” viewers. By recording television programs, and fast-forwarding through advertisements, they are able to watch more television (a one-hour program becomes a 40-minute program without commercials). The most popular time for playback is in prime time programming – still very much a holy land for high-priced advertising. But, obviously advertisers will stop paying for these coveted time slots if their advertisements are simply being fast-forwarded and ignored. So, how do we avoid the death of TV advertising as DVRs penetrate households more and more?
There are a few approaches that could potentially work:
1) Advertising on programming that is least likely to be recorded and skipped through. Right now, the programming that appears to be the most “DVR resistant” are live sporting events and the local news. People must prefer to watch “live TV” in real time. That makes sense to me. I’d rather watch a football game as it happens, then record it and risk somebody accidentally giving away the outcome before I see it.
2) Advertising within the program. While this can admittedly be irritating, the real estate that is least affected by DVRs is the program itself. This can occur in a number of ways. You may have already noticed advertisements and promotions playing along the bottom quarter of your screen during a program. Prepare to see more of that. Another method (which is more involved) is a partnership with the program itself for product or service placement. Pay attention to your favorite programming to see if this may already be subtly (or blatantly) happening. I think we may see this trend increase as well. If advertised products are going to be skipped over in the land of the commercial break, they’ll infiltrate the program in some way.
3) Advertisements within the fast-forward screen. This has already started. On some programs, as you’re fast forwarding for 15 seconds, you may be exposed to an ad on the fast-forward screen. No joke. You may also see an ad displayed as you pause your favorite program for a snack or a bathroom break. You can’t escape the advertisements. Where there’s a screen, there’s a way.
I don’t necessarily advocate for or discredit any of these methods. But, we should be aware that the landscape is changing and affecting how we watch television. The quickly growing popularity of DVRs, mobile and Web TV/Videos is changing the way we have to treat TV advertising.
So, is TV advertising dying? No, it’s quite alive. But, it may never be exactly the same.
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Comments
One method of effective TV advertisement I have noticed occurs during football games. The announcers for the games will give a 15-20 second plug for something during a lull in the action on the field. There is NO WAY anyone watching the game will miss that, even if they have recorded the game and are fast forwarding through all the ads (although I will admit that at least once a season I will catch the beer commercials, they can be so funny!).
I think we will see more and more of what Mike and David reference… commercial mentions and product placements woven into the news or entertainment piece itself. One additional interesting tactic is to place local ads in adjacent positions to what are anticipated to be once in a season high-viewership programs (i.e. the finals of one of the “XYZ country has talent” type of shows.
I think what you are seeing is the beginnings of the death of broadcast television as we know it (meaning general shows to the largest audience possible). Broadcast television’s business model is dependent upon advertising. The convergence of the TV and the computer can’t come soon enough to help get through this transition (from broad large audiences to niche smaller crowds). Sites like hulu.com and youtube.com are finding new ways to keep the advertising model alive without interrupting the watching experience for 2 to 3 minutes with irrelevant ads.
Likewise, broadcast television is having a harder time creating and sustaining these hit shows that appeal to mass audiences. The kind that big brands will pay through the nose to get in front of and therefore create an ad that is entertaining and lasting. This is because audiences have figured out they can watch what they want when they want no matter how niche. Besides for live sports and the occasional hit (Lost, america’s got talent, american idol, etc), shows like Merlin, Firefly, and what ever is on tonight don’t stand a chance in the broadcast television model.
Just as agencies are getting more creative in their traditional print and magazine buys – bundling in online elements where possible and creating cross channel promotions – they are going to have to get creative with television and video.
please read this other fine blog (not my blog, just one i enjoy reading), it gives actual facts and statistics, to add to this conversation: http://bit.ly/GyC5l
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